| | | | PROBLEMS OF MODERN ECONOMICS, N 2 (58), 2016 | | | | ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF REGIONS AND BRANCH COMPLEXES | | | Emirova A. E.
Assistant Professor, Chair of Transportation Systems Management, St. Petersburg State Economic University, PhD (Economics)
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| | | The article focuses on the issue of forecasting in relation to the economic crisis in the transportation industry, as well as the solution of applied tasks connected to anti-crisis management. The author uses the methodology of advanced statistical indices, which fall prior to the beginning of the crisis development. Tracing the advanced indices allows to forecast the approach of the crisis, yet outside of such parameters of it as the precise time of critical phase, its depth and duration. In search of the further use of advanced indices, the article analyzes prognostic potential of more than 500 published statistical indices; based on the data related to the crisis of 2008-2009, the author develops a methodology of forecasting calculation, which is then verified with regards to the crisis of 2014-2015. This methodology exhibited satisfactory forecasting results, and can be used in practice in the area of transportation management | | Key words: transportation, transportation economy, economic crisis, transportation management, forecasting in transportation industry | | Pages: 172 - 175 |
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